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Arcata Weather Observatory : NWS Text - Forecast Discussion000 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 253 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry weather is expected today with a few showers possible over the interior. A cold front will bring below normal temperatures, widespread rain, and high mountain snow to the area Thursday and into Friday. Additional showers and below normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level trough and associated cold front is dropping down from the north towards the area, nudging the instability from yesterday further east this afternoon. There may still be a few showers over the interior this afternoon, but instability is weaker and lapse rates aloft are not as steep. This should limit the threat for thunderstorms. Widespread stratus across the coastal areas and near coastal areas is beginning to lift, with Del Norte seeing some sunshine already this afternoon. Tonight widespread clouds are expected to spread across the area as a cold front approaches the area. Rain is expected to start in Del Norte county Thursday morning and spread south later in the morning and afternoon. The front is expected to rapidly weaken as it moves south. Del Norte county is expected to see amounts ranging from 0.5 to 0.75 on Thursday, while Humboldt is expected to see around a half inch near Orick, with only a tenth of inch reaching Garberville. Precip is expected to come mainly in a few hours of steady rain in the morning and early afternoon as it moves south. Farther south and east in Mendocino, Lake, and Trinity counties, less than a tenth of an inch of rain is expected. Thursday is expected to see cool temperatures with highs in the 50s in most valleys, although southern Mendocino and Lake counties may see mid 60s. Showers are expected to continue to move onshore behind the main front Thursday afternoon through Friday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light, with amounts ranging from a half inch in Del Norte county to less than a tenth of an inch in southern Mendocino and Lake counties. Thursday night widespread cloud cover should keep low temperatures mainly in the 40s, although the mountains could see temperatures drop into the 30s. Friday high temperatures are expected to be in the 50s to low 60s again. For the weekend and into early next week, nearly zonal flow will keep temperatures below normal with a mix of sun and clouds. The models are showing some shortwaves moving through the flow and this may bring occasional light rain. At this point it looks like any rain will be light, but it is possible there could be a stronger shortwave that brings some moderate rain. Temperatures will be rebound slightly, but will generally remain in the 60s. Any nights that do manage to clear out will likely see near freezing or freezing temperatures. At this point Tuesday morning looks like the coldest morning, but this will depend a lot on how much cloud cover there is. MKK && .AVIATION...Wide-ranging stratus clouds, associated with a deep marine layer, affected nearly all of the coastal airports today, and had spread well inland. Tops were in excess of 3000 feet north of Ft Bragg, and nearly 5000 feet south (i.e. UKI). However, impacts were minimal as conditions stayed mainly in MVFR/VFR; CEC Cigs briefly dropped into IFR. Advection of cooler air aloft caused clouds to start mixing out after noonday along portions of the North Coast. A weak-like cold front will approach the region on Thursday and result in pre-frontal "lowering" clouds; rain will start at the coast in the morning. Also ahead of the front, increased winds aloft will produced possible low level windshear (LLWS) along the Del Norte Coast by late morning. Surface winds will become breezy to gusty at the coast. /TA && .MARINE...Wave energy is a bit disorganized, but the sea state will remain relatively calm through Thursday with slight wind wave enhancement downwind of Cape Mendocino. Otherwise, one small SW swell interacting with a mid period NW swell will contribute to the significant wave period under these light winds. Resurgence of southerlies are expected in the northern waters late Thursday into Friday ahead of a frontal passage. Breezy NW winds will resume Friday and persist through the weekend, once again producing an area of elevated gusts around the Cape but not exceeding 20-25 knots. Despite prominent high pressure over the eastern Pacific, additional weak fronts are expected swing through far northern CA late this weekend alongside another long period swell. Increasing wave heights are possible early next week as this swell fills in and pressure gradients tighten along the coast. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png |
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